Evaluating US CO2 Emissions Targets: Statistical Models and Strategic Solutions

Abstract

Climate change caused by the increasing greenhouse emissions is one of the biggest threats impacting the world. One of the primary contributors to CO2 emissions is energy production. The energy demand is expected to rise in the developing countries too because of the rising living standards and growing population. In developed countries such as the US, this growth is driven by technological advancements in AI (Artificial Intelligence) leading to expansion in data centers. The United States has set intermediate targets to meet its long-term net-zero target, i.e., no net CO2 emissions by 2050. Our hypothesis is that the US is not on track to meet intermediate targets such as about 50% reduction in greenhouse gases compared to 2005 and carbon-free electricity by 2035. We assessed the progress against these targets using statistical models and public data for energy related CO2 emissions since they cover about 80% of total emissions. Although the US is making progress on decarbonization through production and application of renewable energy, we found that they are not on track to meet either of these intermediate targets. CO2 emissions are reducing by about 30% by 2030 compared to 2005 and electricity generation still has 30% carbon emissions compared to 2022. To bridge these gaps, the US needs to reduce dependence on fossil fuel energy and move towards electrification through electric vehicles and improving the fuel economy which bridges about 3% of the decarbonization gap. If solar and wind generation is increased by 20% on top of projected increase, the decarbonization gap is reduced further by about 4%. Even with these initiatives, the US is unable to meet its 2030 or 2035 targets. Thus, the US needs to explore and implement other decarbonization options such as sustainable fuels for aviation and maritime applications, hydrogen for heavy duty transportation, or carbon capture for industrial use as a couple of other options to get closer to these targets. Reaching this target will involve researchers, business leaders, policy makers and the public to work collectively to solve this impending challenge.